The Trading Addict Newsletter
Weekly market commentary by Maria Helmick. Clear, math-driven, and built for traders who want discipline over emotion.
All Issues
What's Happening to Wall Street?
AI stocks took the hardest hit as the Nasdaq posted its worst week since June. Plus who we should believe on CoreWeave, October 19, 1987: the day Wall Street crashed, winners and losers, and Day 251 numbers.
Read this issue →Wall Street's Wild Reversal
Buyers fought back as inflation bit. Plus CoreWeave's growth vs. its debt, Michael Burry and the debt behind AI, MU & AMD, China's gold rush, a market tidbit, winners and losers, the heatmap, and Day 250 numbers.
Read this issue →Wall Street Sees Red
Hot inflation, rising yields and an AI selloff. Plus the Interest Rate Roller Coaster, CoreWeave's $104 billion backlog meets a debt scare, a market tidbit, earnings watch, winners and losers, the heatmap, and Day 249 numbers.
Read this issue →Stocks Slip, Inflation Anxiety Builds
Bank earnings met inflation worries. Plus the Week Ahead (CPI, Beige Book, TSMC), whether AI is fueling inflation, China shaking Micron, earnings watch, winners and losers, the heatmap, and Day 248 numbers.
Read this issue →Oil, Politics & AI Stocks
Brent crude near $107 and pressure on chip stocks kept Wall Street guessing. Plus the Week Ahead (bank earnings, CPI, ASML, TSMC), why ten stocks are carrying the market, the VIX at PG-14, earnings watch, winners and losers, the heatmap, and Day 247 numbers.
Read this issue →Wall Street's Moment of Truth
Big banks open earnings season, ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor test the AI trade, and Wednesday's CPI could move yields. Plus the Week at a Glance calendar, whether the S&P 500 has become one giant AI bet, and Day 246 numbers.
Read this issue →Bonds, Bots & Bad News
Thirty-year Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2002 while an OpenAI revenue report rattled AI stocks. Plus Adobe down a third, Burry vs. Eisman on the AI boom, CrowdStrike, the 1987 portfolio-insurance crash, winners and losers, and Day 245 numbers.
Read this issue →Wall Street's House of Cards
The S&P 500 is near record territory, yet most stocks are falling. Plus why FICO is down nearly 60%, the Wall Street closing briefing (Caterpillar and Applied Digital), the heart attack that sent Wall Street into a panic, winners and losers, the heatmap, and Day 244 numbers.
Read this issue →Washington, Wall Street and the Big Bet on Quantinuum
Quantinuum (QNT) has real technology, major partners and government backing, but not much revenue yet. Plus why CEG jumped on a Google nuclear deal, Marvell's $90 billion AI number, today's biggest winners and losers, the earnings watch, the S&P 500 heatmap, and Day 243 numbers.
Read this issue →The AI Power Trade I'm Watching Now
Liberty Energy (LBRT) is moving into AI's biggest bottleneck: electricity. Plus Wall Street's month of tricks and treats, Stock Shorties, how Treasuries were born, the Math Makes Money team, a tech/semi heatmap, and Day 242 numbers.
Read this issue →A Fresh Test for the Market Rally
This week's data and earnings test the rally. Plus Michael Burry's Micron put bet, why Washington is betting billions on quantum (IonQ and Infleqtion), the Math Makes Money team, a tech/semi heatmap, the earnings watch, and Day 241 numbers.
Read this issue →NVIDIA's $235 Billion Bet on Itself
NVIDIA authorizes one of the largest corporate buybacks ever. Plus Amazon locks up 20 years of nuclear power from Constellation Energy, Ackman is back in Netflix after a $400 million exit, the options revolution nobody saw coming, the Math Makes Money team, today's winners and losers, a tech/semi heatmap, and Day 240 numbers.
Read this issue →Micron's $54 Billion Mic Drop
Micron's $54 billion mic drop. Plus Robinhood is building an AI trading desk right into its own app, the Math Makes Money team, what's really happening to FICO, the real Luckin Coffee story behind Chinese stocks, today's winners and losers, the earnings calendar, a tech/semi heatmap, and Day 239 numbers.
Read this issue →CoreWeave Is Bouncing Again: Be CRWV
CoreWeave defends $78 support twice on heavy volume, with $104 now the number to watch. Plus Bloom Energy's 12% AI-power surge, NVIDIA Bulls vs. Michael Burry's growing put position, the Math Makes Money team, a 70-year history of artificial intelligence, today's winners and losers, the earnings calendar, a tech/semi heatmap, and Day 238 numbers.
Read this issue →A Fence Around the Fastest AI: NVIDIA's New AI Safety Platform
NVIDIA launches its Open Agent Safety Platform to put enforceable boundaries around autonomous AI agents. Plus the infrastructure bottleneck plays quietly riding the AI buildout (CRDO, MOD, CLS, CIEN, COHR), an Intel 5% slide breakdown, the Math Makes Money team, a Y2K market tidbit, and Day 237 numbers.
Read this issue →We Don't Predict the Market—We Do the Math: Inside Our SPX 0DTE Strategy
No breaking stories this week, so Maria explains what actually happens behind the scenes at Math Makes Money: backtesting, statistical edge, and why SPX 0DTE is where so much of the automated trading lives. Plus a market tidbit on the trend-following pioneer who shaped today's trading bots, and the October earnings calendar.
Read this issue →Hook, Line and Sinker on Micron + CoreWeave's Covered Call Shift + The Bond Market Takes Over
Waiting on the pullback and the premium before Micron's Sept. 30 earnings — and it's hook, line and sinker once it arrives. CoreWeave becomes a keeper as the covered call strategy changes ahead of its November earnings report. And with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, the bond market is back in charge of the math for stocks. Plus mortgages at 18%, the earnings calendar, winners & losers, Friday's calendar, and the semi heatmap.
Read this issue →Lisa Su's AMD Moment + Burry Raises His AI Bet + SpaceX Before Liftoff
AMD crossed $1 trillion in market cap this week. CEO Lisa Su joined First Lady Melania Trump at the NYSE and confirmed she will attend the White House state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping. Data Center revenue surged 107% to $6.7 billion. Michael Burry added to shorts in Micron, Nebius, Palantir and SOXX while buying beaten-down names like Build-A-Bear and Birkenstock. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell filed to sell nearly $52 million in stock ahead of the September 28 Starship Flight 14 launch.
Read this issue →Meta's Muse Goes Viral + Quantum's $2B Bet + Netflix's Reckoning + Peloton's Cheaper Treadmill
Meta's new AI assistant Muse hit roughly 2.5 million downloads in its first 13 days, overtaking ChatGPT on Apple's U.S. free-app chart — shares jumped 11%. Amazon blocked Muse from its marketplace over access concerns. Quantum stocks rebound on $2 billion in planned federal funding ahead of this week's Quantum World Congress. Netflix faces its fourth straight post-earnings decline, down roughly 23% in 2026 with October 20 as the next test. Peloton's new $2,195 Tread Flex arrives October 1, a fresh reason to watch PTON.
Read this issue →AMD Hits $1 Trillion + Nvidia's AI Fight + Tesla's $50K Roadster Bet + Wall Street Rally
AMD jumped roughly 10% to $1 trillion Monday. Q2 revenue $11.54B (+50%). Data Center revenue climbed 107% to $6.7B, 58% of sales. Helios AI server rack lands Q4 with OpenAI, deployments through 2027. Meta and Anthropic in on multiyear gigawatt-scale plans. Nvidia's Jensen Huang: “0% chance” AI ends the world by 2030; Altman heads to UN Security Council Wednesday and the WH dinner Thursday with Trump and Xi. Tesla asks $50,000 deposits ahead of Oct 1 Roadster reveal near Waco. Wall Street: Nasdaq record close, S&P +1.49%, semi index +4.3%, crude −5%, 10-yr yield slips below 5%.
Read this issue →Bullish on MU? Short Put Sellers, This Is the Week to Watch + Midterm Jitters + Wall Street Opens Its Door to Crypto
Micron heads into Sep 30 earnings with Q4 revenue estimates around $50.9B in the $49–51B guide range; Sep 21 is a key Taiwan-labor date, just nine days before the print. Past midterms saw the VIX rip from 16 to 26 in Oct 2014 and 12 to 25 in Oct 2018, with the S&P down 5.6% and 9.7% respectively; Maria wants VIX 18+ for richer premiums. And the SEC greenlit a five-year exemption for tokenized U.S. stocks on Sep 17 — HOOD and COIN could win; dividends and voting preserved on qualifying tokens; not tax-free.
Read this issue →MU Trade Watch + Weekend Trading Moves Closer + Cathie Wood Buys CoreWeave + Guess the Stock
Micron heads into Sep 30 earnings 4-for-4 on beats, revenue $11.3B → $41.5B in four quarters; support at $1,000 / $975-980 / $900-930. Coinbase +12%, Robinhood +8.7% Friday — CLARITY Act failed but SEC greenlit tokenized-stock trading (weekend hours may follow). Cathie Wood added $19.1M in CoreWeave on the dip (239K shares) amid $25B in new customer commitments. CoreWeave lit up Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 systems + signed a 15-yr hydro-power Niagara Falls lease. Plus a Guess the Stock puzzle.
Read this issue →Micron's Strike Threat + Aschenbrenner's $315M Comeback + Lennar Hits a Wall + Guess the Stock
Taiwan Micron workers push toward a strike vote just nine days before Sep 30 earnings — union wants an 83-month bonus plus quarterly profit-share. Leopold Aschenbrenner (Situational Awareness, -67% July, JPMorgan cut credit) is back buying options: reports of $315M in FLEX call premiums across AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SanDisk and SK Hynix. Lennar cut full-year deliveries to 80-81K homes, gross margin dropped to 15.8% (from 17.5%), net profit halved to $283.9M. Plus a Guess the Stock puzzle — founders started at a Denny's, leather jacket, chips for gamers.
Read this issue →The Fed Hit the Brakes + Intel's Next Big Deal + MARA's Move Into AI + Guess the Stock
The Fed lifted rates to 3.75-4% on a 12-0 vote and the dot-plot pins 4.1% for both end-of-2026 AND end-of-2027 — meaning no relief next year either. Dow -631 (-1.21%), S&P -0.45%, Nasdaq basically flat. Intel +4% on reported SK Hynix talks for Ohio memory-chip facilities; earnings Oct 22. MARA Holdings pivots into AI infrastructure — Starwood JV up to 2.5GW, Long Ridge Ohio $1.5B, Texas 1,200 acres, 64% of France's Exaion. Maria: at $11 this has her attention. Plus a Guess the Stock puzzle — original name Cadabra, 1995 online store, named after a river.
Read this issue →The Costco Oil Crisis + The 5% Flashback + A Tale of the Ticker + Maria's Earnings Plays (MU)
Costco just put a 2-pack limit on Kirkland Signature synthetic motor oil at $58 — up from $30 — as Middle East war disrupts Group III base-oil supplies. The 10-year Treasury is back at 5% for the first time since 2023. Same number preceded a 15.8% rally in 2023 and a 57% crash from 2007. On September 30, 1929, Frank Crumit recorded "A Tale of the Ticker," a comedy about margin calls; twenty-nine days later, Black Tuesday. And Maria eyes another MU pullback before end-of-month earnings.
Read this issue →Manic Monday: AI Fears Shake Wall Street + Crypto's 60-Vote Showdown + Maria's Earnings Plays (MU) + Cathie Wood Shifts Her Bets + Nebius: Palantir Says Yes + The Fed's Doomsday Vault
AI safety warnings crushed semis Monday — NVDA -3.4%, MU -5%, Philadelphia semi index -5.9%. Anthropic's Coxon quit, Amodei called for outside reviewers, and Trump countered that a slowdown just helps China. Meanwhile Bitcoin near $79,200 ahead of Tuesday's Senate CLARITY Act 60-vote test (2:15 PM ET); COIN +9.24%. Maria is watching Micron for a pre-earnings play. Cathie Wood bought $28M META, sold $28.6M GOOGL, big gene-editing week. Nebius (NBIS) -7% despite landing Palantir's preferred sovereign AI partner role. Plus the 1969 Fed Mount Pony bunker: billions shrink-wrapped for post-nuclear rebuild, with a refrigerated area for bodies.
Read this issue →The Fed Takes Center Stage + Bloom Hits the Big Leagues (S&P 500) + Burry Hedges the Digital Future One Bottle at a Time + Uncle Sam Takes the Quantum Leap + Special Delivery Mr. Volcker
Fed decision Wednesday: 87% futures odds of a quarter-point hike vs 70% of economists expecting no change — the disagreement makes Wednesday explosive. Bloom Energy (BE) joins the S&P 500 on Sept 21 after Q2 revenue +165.5%. Michael Burry is quietly stashing Pétrus, DRC and Mouton Rothschild in a London bonded warehouse as his hedge against the quantum-computing era. Meanwhile Uncle Sam just committed $2B across 9 quantum companies (IBM gets $1B). And a 1979 story worth remembering: furious auto dealers mailed coffin-shaped boxes to Paul Volcker's Fed. Rates hit 20%. Inflation broke — and so did a lot of businesses. NEW: table of contents at the top of every issue with clickable jumps to each story.
Read this issue →In Remembrance of September 11, 2001 + Two Earnings Beats. One Clear Winner (ORCL vs ADBE) + Hot PPI, Higher Yields + The Man Who Overruled the Intercom
We remember the lives lost, the heroes who answered, and the families forever changed. Oracle beat big ($1.92 EPS vs $1.74, revenue +30% to $19.3B, $664B remaining performance obligations, FY27 EPS guide raised, +8% AH) — taking Vera to 6-0 on earnings. Adobe beat too ($6.13 vs $6.08, AI-first ARR now $500M+) but dipped -2% AH. Meanwhile PPI ran hot (+0.4% MoM, 5.4% YoY, diesel +24.1%), pushing the 10-year within striking distance of 5% (~4.95%), 30-year at ~5.37% (highest since 2007), Fed hike odds ~70%. And a story worth remembering: Rick Rescorla, Morgan Stanley's security director, overruled the "stay put" intercom and evacuated ~2,700 employees on 9/11 with a bullhorn — because he'd insisted on drills.
Read this issue →Blackwell Demand Sparks a Bidding War + Michael Burry Hits the Brakes — and I Get It + SpaceX Share Unlock Opens the Door to More Volatility
Nebius is auctioning Blackwell computing capacity, and winning bids are coming in 15% to 20% above posted price — Q1 revenue hit $399M, nearly 8x a year ago, with $20–25B in 2026 capex planned. Michael Burry closed his December NVDA and PLTR puts on time-decay grounds but still holds 2027 PLTR/QQQ puts and his three biggest shorts (Oracle, Palantir, Nebius) — Maria explains why she's holding cash for the same reason he is. Plus SpaceX fell more than 4% as 319 million shares unlocked (~$49B in potential supply), with 328 million more coming September 24, and five Market Sparks on oil, yields, Google's AI power bill, Qualcomm/AWS, and Thursday's ORCL/ADBE earnings.
Read this issue →Thursday Earnings Ideas: Oracle or Adobe? + Meta's MUSE: Helpful Assistant or Privacy Nightmare? + Congress Calling. Except It Wasn't.
Oracle and Adobe both report Thursday after the close. Vera 3.0 walks through the naked-put math — ORCL expected move ~9.5%, ADBE ~8%, OpenAI $300B computing deal already in the ORCL story. Of the four possibilities, the ORCL November $135 put is the standout: ~$6 premium, ~$129 effective basis, but Vera says WAIT for Thursday premium. Plus Meta's new MUSE agent that sends emails, books flights, and makes payments — free / $20 / $100 tiers — opens a whole new revenue stream beyond Meta's 98%-ads business (but also a privacy problem). And in 1913, con man David Lamar impersonated Congressman A. Mitchell Palmer over the phone, rattled J.P. Morgan and U.S. Steel, and got two years in prison — then died in 1934 with $138 to his name.
Read this issue →Nvidia's $12.9 Billion Shortcut to AI's Developers + Michael Burry Takes on AI — and Tries Lululemon on for Size + Nike Gets the Boot
Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.93 billion — nearly 3x its 2023 valuation. The platform hosts 3M+ AI models, 18M+ users, 200K corporate customers. Jensen swears the platform stays neutral, but owning the doorway to every AI project gives Nvidia protection from Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and OpenAI, all building their own chips. Meanwhile Michael Burry spent August shorting AI winners (PLTR +51.4%, CRWV +17.4%, NVDA +8.4%) and quietly built Lululemon into 17.4% of his portfolio — his largest long. Then LULU cratered 18%. He calls it a "fat pitch" and won't sell. Plus Nike removed from S&P 100 after 18 years, replaced by Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks and SanDisk — all tech.
Read this issue →The Fed Isn't Giving Hints — Or Is It? + Microsoft's $145 Billion Question + The Stock With No End + Labor Day Market Hours
Fed Chair Warsh promised no hints, but Governor Waller (an actual FOMC voter) just gave investors a clear look at what could determine his September vote — if inflation cools, he could hold. Wall Street heard it loud: Dow +600, S&P +1.15%. Microsoft's $145B AI bet is starting to pay: Azure +43%, 30M paid Copilot seats, $678B contracted, BofA target $600. Plus the 1868 Vanderbilt vs. Erie Railroad war — where the richest man in America met the one thing he couldn't outspend: a printing press that never stopped. And Labor Day market hours attached.
Read this issue →The Tech Tantrum + Wall Street Just Loaded the Spring + Broadcom's AI Engine Shifts Into High Gear + Wall Street's 5-Minute Miracle
AVGO printed +86% revenue growth, adjusted EPS $3.32, AI semi revenue +221% to $16.7B, next-quarter AI outlook +236% to $21.7B — and still fell after hours because management didn't raise the $100B fiscal-27 AI target. Investors are calling it the Tech Tantrum. Meanwhile, Wall Street's largest investors are loaded up short and paying more for protection. The spring has been pushed down. One good surprise could release it. Plus the 5-minute miracle: how the SEC's circuit breakers make one minute decide whether Wall Street hits the emergency brakes at 3:25 PM or races toward the closing bell.
Read this issue →Dell Delivers, Then Raises the Bar + Vera's Final AVGO Trade Update + September Has a Bad Reputation + The 1914 Stock Market That Wasn't Supposed To Exist
Dell crushed it: $7.04 EPS (vs $4.91 expected), $47B revenue (+58%), $95B AI-server backlog, and management raised full-year guide from $167B to $192B. Maria's two open short puts (Oct 16 $370 for $11.50, Nov 20 $330 for $12.25) are printing — watching 50% profit. Vera's final call on AVGO Oct 16 $330 put: ENTER at $8.25+ (10.7% cushion, ~21 delta, $321.75 basis). Plus “September Has a Bad Reputation” — when the S&P enters the month above its 200-day MA, 8%+ declines happen only 1 in 70 vs 7 in 27 below it. Plus the 1914 NYSE that locked its doors when WWI broke out — and the secret alley market in New Street where 35 brokers traded 40,000 shares a day out of sight of the newspapers.
Read this issue →AVGO + ORCL + DELL Earnings Trades + The AI Trade Didn't Break, The Crowd Did + Jensen's $960K Jacket
Three earnings trades this week: AVGO $330 put (Sep 2 AMC, Vera 3.0 status WATCH), Oracle $170 put watching for Sep 8 setup ($638B RPO, $19.2B Q4), and DELL Oct 16 $360 short put ($8.50 credit, GOOD setup quality, 22% cushion, 0.13 delta, 56.1 IV rank). Plus “The AI Trade Didn't Break, The Crowd Did” — momentum's worst quarter in 25 years wasn't about Nvidia. It was about too many hedge funds owning the same stocks with leverage. Plus Jensen Huang's leather jacket sold at Sotheby's for $960,000 — 137x original retail.
Read this issue →Dell's AI Rally Faces a High-Stakes Earnings Test + G20 in North Carolina + Bre-X: A Fortune Built in the Jungle
Dell reports Tuesday after the close — +200% YTD and Wall Street wants +50% growth on top of it. Wall Street expects $4.91 EPS on $45.2B revenue; options price an 11-12% move. Plus Maria's Oct 16 $350 naked put earnings trade (~$8.00 credit, $342 effective basis, 23% cushion, 47 DTE, defensive 12-delta). The G20 comes to North Carolina this week: Bessent hosts finance ministers in Asheville (Iran, tariffs, debt); Lutnick + Jensen + Altman in Raleigh-Durham on AI policy. And the Bre-X mother lode — 70 million ounces of gold "found" in the Indonesian jungle, C$6 billion valuation, one dead geologist, salted samples — the biggest mining fraud in history.
Read this issue →Nvidia Isn't Just Selling Chips Anymore + Wall Street Buried Salesforce Too Early + Netflix's Real Growth Problem
Nvidia is no longer just chips — Jensen is building the whole AI factory. Vera Rubin lifts one-gigawatt compute opportunity from $18B (Hopper) to $40B, AWS just ordered another 2 million GPUs on top of its existing 1 million commitment, and Nvidia now has a year of forward visibility across 350+ factories in 30 countries. Salesforce jumped +23% after being left for dead — the Claudeforce partnership with Anthropic brought AI inside instead of pushing CRM out. Netflix is growing 13% with 33% margins but Wall Street doesn't know how to value a streaming giant that's growing up. Plus the CBOE floor legend who fat-fingered 1,000 puts the day before the 1987 crash and woke up $10 million richer.
Read this issue →Wall Street Wanted More. Jensen Delivered Plenty. + CrowdStrike Crushed It
Nvidia beat every top-line number — revenue $96.22B (beat $92.2B), EPS $2.22 (beat $2.09), data center $89.0B up 117% YoY, Q3 guide $108B (beat $104.9B) — but Wall Street still found a scratch (74% gross margin vs 74.8% wanted). CrowdStrike printed a monster quarter: net-new ARR $333M up 51%, ending ARR $5.84B, up 10%+ after hours. Maria's Oct 16 $155 put earnings trade is looking sweet. Plus Hetty Green, the "Witch of Wall Street" who lent NYC $1.1 million in the Panic of 1907 by waiting for the wealthy to run out of money.
Read this issue →Burry Wants Alibaba in the Bargain Bin + Two Earnings Trades (AVGO $320 Put + CRWD $155 Put)
Michael Burry wants Alibaba 50% cheaper — Maria says Burry can have at it. Plus two earnings trades: AVGO $320 put for $9.50 credit (Sept 2 earnings, 10.2% cushion, 12.9% break-even cushion) and CRWD $155 put for $4.80 credit (Aug 26 after close, 16.0% cushion). Meet Wall Street's Einstein: Peter Tuchman, the NYSE floor teletypist who became the iconic wild-haired broker photographers love. Plus Wednesday's PCE + Q2 GDP double release at 8:30 AM and the semiconductor heatmap.
Read this issue →The NVDA Special Edition — The Long-Runway Put + Nvidia Earnings Reset
In honor of NVIDIA's August 26 earnings — Wall Street's most anticipated earnings event of the season. Maria's Long-Runway Put trade: NVDA Jan 15, 2027 $185 short put for $9.50 credit ($175.50 effective basis, 15.8% below $208.48, 27 delta, 144 DTE, plan to capture 65-70% and close within 80 days). Plus the earnings-reset playbook: 4 of Nvidia's last 5 earnings beats produced next-day declines, but the first reaction is only the opening verdict. And the tidbit: NVIDIA was almost a toilet-paper company — here's how it got the name and Jensen's tattoo.
Read this issue →Wall Street Sees Nvidia at $340 to $350 + Salesforce Show Me the Growth + Bitcoin's Big Meeting
Bank of America $350, BMO $340, Morgan Stanley $288 — 52 analysts still say Buy on Nvidia ahead of Wednesday Aug 26 earnings. Salesforce reports after the bell same day: Agentforce hit $1.2B ARR (up 205%), but Wall Street wants organic growth stripped of Informatica. Bitcoin jumped from $69K to $74K on a White House meeting that produced no bill, no rules, no purchase — just a short squeeze. Plus the story of who walks away from $77 billion in Bitcoin without a trace.
Read this issue →The Cloud Over SMCI Is Finally Lifting + Moderna Overreaction + CrowdStrike CTO Exit
Super Micro's federal investigation ended far better than shareholders feared — SMCI back on Maria's watchlist ($65B FY27 revenue guidance, $37 stock, $41 average target). Moderna's 177% Wednesday breakthrough rally gave back 23.56% ($41.08) in a single Thursday. CrowdStrike's global CTO Elia Zaitsev walked away after 13 years to co-found a $170M AI/cybersecurity venture firm — five days before earnings. Plus the 1867 story of Edward Calahan, who invented the stock ticker and lost his fortune in a market crash.
Read this issue →I Smell BS. + The Next SpaceX Supply Test
A $21 billion startup, an anonymous "semi-insider," and one very testable claim against a $4 trillion incumbent. Etched raised $700M, has >$1B in contracts, and just repriced from $10.3B to $21B in a month — but no SEC filings, no independent benchmarks. Meanwhile Nvidia posted $81.6B in a single quarter with $45.5B non-GAAP net income. Plus 319M SpaceX shares unlock Aug 20 — and how the first release actually played (SPCX +6.1% on unlock day, +15.8% the next). Wall Street's first hedge fund began as a magazine assignment.
Read this issue →It's Meta's Fault — Or Is It? + War, Oil and 5% Treasuries
A $200 billion lawsuit puts doomscrolling, parental responsibility and META's advertising machine on trial (29 states, ~14% of market value, $60.8B Q2 revenue). Plus oil is carrying a war premium and long-term Treasury yields are above 5% (30-yr 5.31%, 10-yr 4.72%, Brent ~$85 Q3). And one unfinished 1974 trade with Germany's Bankhaus Herstatt that created the Basel Committee and changed international banking forever.
Read this issue →Maria's Trade Watch: AMD $410 Naked Put + The $1,800 SanDisk Question
Maria walks through a specific AMD $410 naked put — $1,015 credit, 60 DTE, effective basis near $400. Plus what Wall Street missed on SanDisk's $600 to $1,800 run (6x EPS explosion, 84.6% gross margin, $20B buybacks). And why SPY's lifespan is tied to eleven strangers born 1990–1993.
Read this issue →Black Monday 2 + The Consumer Takes the Stand + Fed Minutes
Michael Burry warns of a 1987-style decline — we ran the stress test across Dow, SPX, SPY, QQQ and /NQ (12,152 Dow points, 70–90 VIX stress range). Plus four major retailers reporting in three days (Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, Walmart). Wednesday's Fed minutes and Jackson Hole preview.
Read this issue →What Is Palantir Quietly Building? + The Market Undercurrent
Palantir's patent filings look like pieces of an emerging enterprise AI workforce: Agent Ops Framework (managing AI agents as workers), Agent Evaluation Framework (judging them) and Ontology (giving them business context) — and Palantir is already working with NVIDIA on operational AI. Plus The Market Undercurrent: the earnings wave still ahead (HD, LOW, TGT, WMT, BABA, BIDU) and NVIDIA on Aug 26.
Read this issue →SPCX Short Squeeze + Pairs Trading
SPCX rebounded more than 40% from its August low as short interest fell from 34% to about 11% — but the August 20 unlock adds roughly 319M shares to the float. Maria on the $150 resistance / $135 entry area and her short-put position. Plus Pairs Trading explained with the NVIDIA/AMD example (three scenarios, $10K each side), the gap-convergence trade, and when the gap is telling the truth.
Read this issue →AI Infra Earnings (CRWV + SMCI) + SMWG + CPI Watch + Passive Investing
CoreWeave delivered $2.58B revenue with $104B backlog (+246%) and Super Micro's fiscal Q4 came in at $11.1B with margins recovering to 17.6%. Wednesday's 8:30 AM ET CPI report could tip the Fed's deadlock — hotter reading keeps yields high, cooler reading opens the rate-cut door. Michael Green's model says passive investing at 63% of fund assets could become structurally unstable near 65%. Plus Maria on SMWG (Stock Market Weight Gain) — the trader-health problem you don't see coming.
Read this issue →Oracle Bounce + Space Earnings (RKLB, ASTS) + LITE's 1,500% Runner
Oracle rallied 2% Monday to $149.75 but the chart is still broken (down 40% over 12 months, below all major moving averages, S&P cut to BBB-). Rocket Lab down 7% AH on soft Q3 margin guide; AST SpaceMobile -4.4% on widening losses. LITE went from $66 to $1,085 (+1,539%) — Maria on where the AI money goes next (memory, optics, inference). Plus a Market Tidbit on Wall Street's greatest single-day rally: +15.34% on March 15, 1933.
Read this issue →CPI Week + AI Race Enters Orbit + Aug 10-13 Earnings + Stock Joke
Wednesday's CPI is the week's first big test after Friday's soft payroll headline. SpaceX moves into the same GPU-power-financing race as CoreWeave, and how it could squeeze CRWV's margins. Full Aug 10-13 earnings list. And a Stock Joke of the Day.
Read this issue →August Earnings List + CRWV Preview + Nvidia's Gigawatt Story
Full August earnings list Aug 11–31 (SMCI, CRWV, CAVA, LITE, CSCO, AMAT, NU, EL, DE, PTON, UI, ZM, NVDA, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, MRVL and more). CoreWeave preview with Maria's Sep 4 $72 put trade idea — and the four-quarter selloff pattern CRWV needs to break. Nvidia's next big metric isn't GPUs, it's gigawatts — one gigawatt of AI infrastructure equals roughly $50 billion in Nvidia revenue. Plus a market meme on how investors really sleep at night.
Read this issue →Wall Street's Biggest Earnings + Maria's Market Weather + The Sunday Open Guide + Why Cboe Had to Exist
Full Wednesday earnings scorecard: SNDK big beat, WDC beat, APP mixed, FIG beat and raise, ALB and IONQ big beats. Maria's Market Weather forecast on the calm after the storm and the rally broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven. Nick's Sunday Market Open Checklist (IG Weekend + real futures at 6:00 p.m. ET). Thursday after-hours preview (ABNB, NET, TEAM, DKNG, TTD and more). And a market-history piece on why Cboe had to exist — the exchange that made risk itself tradable.
Read this issue →AMD Beat Earnings, Stock Dropped 10% + Is Nvidia Going 'Buy Here, Pay Here'?
Full after-hours earnings scorecard: ALAB, AMGN, AMD, PINS, SPCX, GILD and ANET. AMD grew revenue 50% and doubled Data Center to $6.7B — and still sold off. Nvidia is reportedly discussing a $250B financial backstop to help OpenAI lease a massive Ohio data-center campus. Plus a Market Tidbit on the Wall Street bell and gong, and the full Aug 5–7 earnings watch (APP, DDOG, NET, TTD, OKLO and more).
Read this issue →AMD Earnings: Good May Not Be Good Enough + SpaceX First Public Report + Volmageddon
AMD reports Tuesday after the close with $11.2B guided revenue and roughly 46% growth. The bar is sky-high — Wall Street wants a beat, a raise and a confident outlook. On the same evening, SpaceX delivers its first quarterly report as a public company — just two days before roughly 911.5 million restricted shares become eligible for sale. Plus a Market Tidbit on Volmageddon: the trade that died overnight when XIV crashed 96% in one afternoon.
Read this issue →The Market Oscars: AMD Leads a High-Stakes Earnings Week + Palantir + Delta True/False
Earnings calendar for the week of August 3–7 with the Big Three (PLTR, AMD, SPCX). Maria previews AMD, Astera Labs, SpaceX and Datadog — the most-watched earnings names of the week. Plus a Monday Earnings Briefing on Palantir, reporting after the close, and a Trading True or False on why a short option moving from 16 to 30 delta does not mean its probability of expiring ITM has doubled.
Read this issue →After-Hours Earnings + The 24-Year-Old Behind a $20B Hedge Fund + Rocket Lab + Palantir
AMZN, AAPL, RDDT and RIVN beat. COIN and MSTR missed. Plus Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20 billion Situational Awareness fund gets its face ripped off after AI stocks reverse and Citadel steps in to buy part of the public portfolio. Rocket Lab wins a $266 million Space Force contract for HASTE launches. Maria makes the bull case for Palantir. And a True or False on whether delta-neutral overnight is actually protected.
Read this issue →The Big Earnings Report + The Red Day Test + Blackie the NYSE Dog
MSFT beat both, META missed EPS but beat revenue, HOOD beat both, QCOM beat revenue but missed EPS, GNRC posted a big earnings beat. Plus Maria on The Red Day Test — how to manage fear, buying power, and decision-making when the market turns against you. And a Wall Street True or False on Blackie the stray dog who became an NYSE good-luck legend in the 1920s and 1930s.
Read this issue →Cathie Wood Buying + Michael Burry Shorting Micron + The Vanishing Attention Span
ARK Invest bought the Tesla drop and added SpaceX, Meta and Tempus AI. Michael Burry increased his short position in Micron and is questioning the AI boom. Plus Maria on the vanishing attention span of the American investor (holding periods went from 8.3 years in 1960 to 0.6 years in 2020), a Market Tidbit on Sir Isaac Newton losing his fortune in the South Sea Bubble, and a True or False on whether the options market was really functioning during Black Monday 1987.
Read this issue →Nvidia’s Korea Move Could Change the AI Race
Nvidia is not just selling AI chips anymore — it’s locking down the memory, power and infrastructure needed to control the next phase of AI. $500B+ SK Group deal, $200B Samsung-Broadcom agreement. Plus the Market Week Ahead earnings (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN, HOOD), a 9/11 Market Tidbit on the day the opening bell meant more than money, and a True or False on why a stop-loss order does not guarantee your stop price.
Read this issue →AMD’s Next Act + Your Stock Is Down 50% + Fed Week Ahead + True/False
UBS raised AMD to $730 — the reason wasn’t just a faster chip but the growing server CPU business. Michael Burry on the costly mistake of holding a losing stock just to get back to even. Plus a Market Week Ahead preview of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting where the Fed may hold but the bond market is sending a warning, and a True or False market lesson on how a stock can hit an all-time high even as the company is worth less.
Read this issue →AMD Executes + Tesla Stumbles + Intel Turns + Salad Oil Tidbit
AMD just made its AI ambitions harder to ignore — Helios in full production and OpenAI committing to large-scale deployment. Tesla revenue beat but earnings missed by a wide margin. Intel finally shows signs of a real turnaround with revenue up 25% and adjusted EPS at twice the estimate. Plus a market tidbit on the 1963 salad-oil scandal that cost Wall Street $175 million and made Warren Buffett a fortune.
Read this issue →SpaceX Traders Need to Get Through August + Tech Earnings Scorecard + LSE 24
Cathie Wood says SpaceX could become the most important company in history — but traders need to get through August (earnings + a $116B lock-up release). Plus a tech earnings scorecard (GOOGL, TSLA, NOW, TXN, IBM), London Stock Exchange preparing a 24-hour AI-powered venue, a market tidbit on the day the NYMEX pit boiled over, and the earnings calendar for July 23–31 including MSFT, META, AAPL and AMZN.
Read this issue →Wall Street Could Not Stay Away From the Chips + Nvidia Is Coming for Intel
After last week’s painful semiconductor selloff, buyers came rushing back into the AI trade — chip index +5.2%, SanDisk +14.3%, WDC +12.5%, Micron +12.2%. Plus Nvidia’s new Vera CPU targets Intel and AMD’s last stronghold with $20B revenue projected by 2027, a Market Tidbit on the stock so expensive it broke Wall Street’s computers (Berkshire), and an After the Closing Bell earnings preview.
Read this issue →AI: Flywheel or Flytrap? + Earnings Week
Maria on the AI spending cycle behind the boom — and what investors should watch next. Plus the Tuesday and Wednesday earnings that will set the tone for August (Alphabet, Tesla, GE Vernova, IBM, ServiceNow, GM, Charles Schwab, Capital One) and a Wall Street tidbit on the market makers who allegedly said “stop giving better prices” — a $1B Nasdaq settlement.
Read this issue →Big Tech Is Back In The Spotlight
80+ S&P 500 companies report this week — Alphabet, Tesla, TXN Wednesday; Intel Thursday; PMI Friday. Plus AMD Advancing AI 2026 with Lisa Su’s Thursday keynote, Meta reportedly leasing $10B of AI compute to Anthropic, and a Wall Street history tidbit on the women who forced the boys’ club to make room. July cohort sold out — August waitlist open.
Read this issue →The Market Wasn’t Really Red — The Chips Were
Nasdaq -1.47%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose +0.9%. Maria on why the sell-off was in semiconductors, not the whole market — TSMC crushed earnings anyway, UnitedHealth showed where the money went, and Netflix good but not good enough. Plus the $345 million Mizuho typo that changed market safeguards forever. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →The Market Is Rotating — Not Falling Apart
Maria on why money isn't leaving the market — it's rotating into Financials, Industrials and Healthcare. Plus three major earnings reports Thursday (TSM, UnitedHealth, Netflix) and the actor who ran tickets on the NYSE floor before he became Dr. Perry Cox on Scrubs.
Read this issue →IBM's AI Spending Shock — Catch a Falling Knife?
IBM drops 23% on a preliminary earnings miss — customers didn't stop spending, they shifted to AI infrastructure. Plus Warsh sets a disciplined tone in his first congressional testimony, and a Market Tidbit on the difference between an advertised trade and a real one.
Read this issue →The Best Investors Know When to Do Nothing
Maria on the discipline of doing nothing: patience is not passive, it is the discipline to stay with a sound plan when headlines, volatility and emotion are pushing you to abandon it. Plus the sleepy juice company that turned a $10,000 investment into $27 million. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →War, CPI and AI Earnings — Possible Crazy Ivan Week
Maria on the biggest trading week of the summer: war risk and oil, CPI + PPI, JPM/GS/BAC/C/WFC bank earnings, ASML, TSM, Netflix, Warsh testimony, monthly options expiration. Plus: the AI trade is not falling apart — the market is separating the likely winners. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →How Much Risk Are You Really Taking?
Maria on knowing your true risk tolerance, Micron breaking ground on the largest US semiconductor site, Cathie Wood doubling down on disruptive tech, and the 12½-cent decision that cost Warren Buffett's partners roughly $100 billion. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →Can AI Help the Fed Beat Inflation?
Maria on whether AI can help the Fed beat inflation, why passive money keeps feeding the mega-caps, a clean Crazy Ivan trade example from this morning, and the very first options trade ever made in 1973. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →Maria’s Favorite Trade — Crazy Ivans on /NQ
Maria walks through her favorite trade: selling temporary fear in /NQ for premium. Plus AI stocks slide but the broader market holds up, one Elon tweet that created a $650M mistake, this week’s calendar, and the AI Trading Institute deadline for the Saturday July 18 cohort.
Read this issue →The Bulls Won the First Half — Fall May Make Them Earn the Rest
Maria on Q2 gains, the September/October setup, and what a smart trader does when a bull market gets crowded. Plus: the Piggly Wiggly short-squeeze story and application deadline extended to Monday July 6.
Read this issue →Warsh's Message to Wall Street · Nike Shuts Down Converse Rumors · Alcoa Deals for South32
Kevin Warsh puts integrity first at the Fed. Nike shuts down the Converse divestiture rumors and now has to deliver. Alcoa gaps down on the $4.1B South32 asset deal, buying more of the aluminum chain.
Read this issue →Q2 Belonged to the Bulls · What's Ahead This Short Week
The Dow posted its biggest quarterly jump since 2022 and leadership broadened beyond AI. Plus what's ahead in this short holiday week: Warsh at Sintra, June jobs Thursday, closed Friday. With Maria's Odd Market Tidbit on the day Wall Street took Wednesdays off.
Read this issue →Rocket Lab Just Bought The Missing Piece · S&P 500: Expensive But Not Crashing
Rocket Lab just bought Iridium — a launch company now owns the network. Plus the S&P 500 is expensive on every metric that matters, but expensive is not the same as crashing. With Maria's Odd Market Tidbit: the 1950s onion-futures squeeze that became federal law.
Read this issue →Small Caps Are Back · SpaceX Gets the Fast Pass · Short Week, Big Pivot
Small caps wake up while leveraged ETFs hit $45B/day. SpaceX skips the index line — but a $350B+ valuation is the entry that matters. Plus oil headlines, jobs report, and AI in a 4-day Independence Day week. With Maria's Stutz Squeeze tidbit.
Read this issue →Intel or AMD? Plus Prediction Markets — Wall Street's New Casino Door
Intel has the comeback story. AMD has the cleaner trade setup — Maria walks through the AMD July 31 $410 short put. Plus Cboe walks into prediction markets: innovation or Wall Street’s newest casino door?
Read this issue →Micron Hits a Home Run + Wall Street Raised the Bar
Micron delivered the kind of earnings report that makes investors stop and pay attention — Q3 revenue $41.46B, Q4 guided to $50B. Plus Wall Street raised S&P 500 targets to 7,800-8,100.
Read this issue →Is This the AI Trickle-Down Effect?
Korean chip stocks flashed red. U.S. tech followed. Maria explains why this looks more like a profit-taking reset than a breakdown — and why Micron earnings tonight matter.
Read this issue →Broadcom's Dip + Backtesting Bots and the Dreaded M&M Day
AVGO pulled back but the AI story still looks strong — Maria's watching the Aug $350 short put. Plus how backtesting and AI bots help survive the dreaded M&M Day.
Read this issue →Iran/Hormuz Update + CrowdStrike Splits 4-for-1
Oil higher and futures cautious on renewed Strait of Hormuz risk — Monday morning is the tell. Plus CRWD goes 4-for-1 on July 2: easier to trade, not cheaper.
Read this issue →SpaceX Options Blast Off + Warsh Takes Control
1.8 million SPCX contracts on day one beat Meta’s 2012 record. Maria is waiting for gravity. Plus Warsh just changed the Fed’s message at the FOMC.
Read this issue →Micron Earnings Trade + NVIDIA $25B Bonds + The New AI Tell
Maria’s Aug 21 $680 short put on MU pays $3,135 with a 35% downside cushion before June 24 earnings. NVIDIA raises $25B from strength. Plus the new AI scoreboard.
Read this issue →SpaceX Options Arrive Today + 40 Years on Wall Street
SPCX options begin trading Tuesday with the stock around $192 (up 42% from the $135 IPO). Plus Maria on humility, confidence, and integrity — the four lessons that actually keep traders alive.
Read this issue →Kevin Warsh Warned the Fed 16 Years Ago. Now He Runs It.
In 2010 Warsh wrote “An Ode to Independence” warning that political pressure could damage Fed credibility. Now he sits in the chair he warned about — and the test he described is here.
Read this issue →SpaceX IPO $1.75T + Adobe CFO Out
SpaceX targets a $1.75 trillion IPO at $135/share; BlackRock reportedly placing a $5B order. Plus Adobe beats earnings but stock drops on CFO Dan Durn\'s departure.
Read this issue →Same Story Different Stock (Oracle) + Memory May Get the Profits (MU)
Oracle posted record revenue and a 93%-growth cloud business but the stock dropped 6% on AI buildout costs. Plus Maria on why AI doesn't just need chips — it needs memory.
Read this issue →Intel's AI Comeback + Hot CPI Tech Pressure
Google reportedly placed a 3M+ TPU chip order with Intel. Nvidia evaluating Intel tech too. Plus Maria on Tuesday's broad tech selloff and today's CPI report.
Read this issue →Warsh Changes the Ruler + Micron Earnings
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may keep the 2% inflation target but emphasize a lower trimmed-mean gauge - changing the rate-cut math. Plus Maria on Micron earnings Friday.
Read this issue →Here We Go… Friday Selloff + /NQ Put Buying Power
Friday's strong jobs report triggered the worst market day in over a year. Nasdaq -4.2%, S&P -2.6%, $1.8 trillion erased. Plus Maria's take on how to manage /NQ put buying power.
Read this issue →Rockets or Robots? Plus a Bitcoin Reality Check
SpaceX targets a $135 IPO and a $1.75T valuation. Anthropic confidentially files. Bitcoin drops on $1.4B in ETF outflows. Two big stories Maria is watching.
Read this issue →Broadcom’s AI Boom — But Wall Street Wanted More + CrowdStrike’s 4-for-1 Split
Broadcom beat on every line and the stock still fell — why “priced for perfection” matters. Plus CrowdStrike’s 4-for-1 split: more shares, same pie.
Read this issue →Snap-Back +$66K — Plus NVIDIA, Cybersecurity, and POWL
Phil snapped back from Monday’s loss with a record $66K green day. Plus three AI plays Maria’s watching: NVDA ecosystem, PANW/CRWD, and POWL.
Read this issue →What We’re Watching This Week — Plus FEMO May Be the Real Story
Jobs, SpaceX, Iran, AI earnings — and a question Maria wants you to answer: is this rally FOMO or FEMO?
Read this issue →9 1/2 Weeks — And I Don’t Mean the Movie
Watch the bonds, watch yields, watch oil. If they stay calm, the rally can keep moving higher. If they start flashing warnings, respect the risk.
Read this issue →FOMO Is Back — But Chasing Is Still Not a Strategy
The market does not reward regret. It rewards clean setups, defined risk, and patience.
Read this issue →Today’s PCE Report Is More Than an Inflation Number
A confidence test for the rally, an early credibility test for Warsh, and a reminder that Powell’s shadow is still in the room.
Read this issue →Bulls, Bears & AI — Oh My
Bulls, Bears and AI, Oh My!!!!
Read this issue →One Tweet Can Break a Clean Trade
Headline risk and the 0dte SPX trader. How a single tweet can change the entire market tone, lessons from 2013 to 2024, and Phil's trades for the week of May 24.
Read this issue →Memorial Day Setup: Short Week, Big Data, Big Earnings
A short, heavy week. Markets closed Memorial Day. PCE Thursday. AI power demand reshaping the grid. Oil as the wild card. Phil's SPX trade plan for the week.
Read this issue →Markets. AI. Energy. Rates.
Maria's Market Take on the Fed balance sheet battle, the AI infrastructure trade, energy, and rates. Plus Phil's setup for the we