The Trading Addict Newsletter
Weekly market commentary by Maria Helmick. Clear, math-driven, and built for traders who want discipline over emotion.
All Issues
The Market Wasn’t Really Red — The Chips Were
Nasdaq -1.47%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose +0.9%. Maria on why the sell-off was in semiconductors, not the whole market — TSMC crushed earnings anyway, UnitedHealth showed where the money went, and Netflix good but not good enough. Plus the $345 million Mizuho typo that changed market safeguards forever. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →The Market Is Rotating — Not Falling Apart
Maria on why money isn't leaving the market — it's rotating into Financials, Industrials and Healthcare. Plus three major earnings reports Thursday (TSM, UnitedHealth, Netflix) and the actor who ran tickets on the NYSE floor before he became Dr. Perry Cox on Scrubs.
Read this issue →IBM's AI Spending Shock — Catch a Falling Knife?
IBM drops 23% on a preliminary earnings miss — customers didn't stop spending, they shifted to AI infrastructure. Plus Warsh sets a disciplined tone in his first congressional testimony, and a Market Tidbit on the difference between an advertised trade and a real one.
Read this issue →The Best Investors Know When to Do Nothing
Maria on the discipline of doing nothing: patience is not passive, it is the discipline to stay with a sound plan when headlines, volatility and emotion are pushing you to abandon it. Plus the sleepy juice company that turned a $10,000 investment into $27 million. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →War, CPI and AI Earnings — Possible Crazy Ivan Week
Maria on the biggest trading week of the summer: war risk and oil, CPI + PPI, JPM/GS/BAC/C/WFC bank earnings, ASML, TSM, Netflix, Warsh testimony, monthly options expiration. Plus: the AI trade is not falling apart — the market is separating the likely winners. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →How Much Risk Are You Really Taking?
Maria on knowing your true risk tolerance, Micron breaking ground on the largest US semiconductor site, Cathie Wood doubling down on disruptive tech, and the 12½-cent decision that cost Warren Buffett's partners roughly $100 billion. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →Can AI Help the Fed Beat Inflation?
Maria on whether AI can help the Fed beat inflation, why passive money keeps feeding the mega-caps, a clean Crazy Ivan trade example from this morning, and the very first options trade ever made in 1973. Institute deadline Friday July 24 at 5:00 PM ET.
Read this issue →Maria’s Favorite Trade — Crazy Ivans on /NQ
Maria walks through her favorite trade: selling temporary fear in /NQ for premium. Plus AI stocks slide but the broader market holds up, one Elon tweet that created a $650M mistake, this week’s calendar, and the AI Trading Institute deadline for the Saturday July 18 cohort.
Read this issue →The Bulls Won the First Half — Fall May Make Them Earn the Rest
Maria on Q2 gains, the September/October setup, and what a smart trader does when a bull market gets crowded. Plus: the Piggly Wiggly short-squeeze story and application deadline extended to Monday July 6.
Read this issue →Warsh's Message to Wall Street · Nike Shuts Down Converse Rumors · Alcoa Deals for South32
Kevin Warsh puts integrity first at the Fed. Nike shuts down the Converse divestiture rumors and now has to deliver. Alcoa gaps down on the $4.1B South32 asset deal, buying more of the aluminum chain.
Read this issue →Q2 Belonged to the Bulls · What's Ahead This Short Week
The Dow posted its biggest quarterly jump since 2022 and leadership broadened beyond AI. Plus what's ahead in this short holiday week: Warsh at Sintra, June jobs Thursday, closed Friday. With Maria's Odd Market Tidbit on the day Wall Street took Wednesdays off.
Read this issue →Rocket Lab Just Bought The Missing Piece · S&P 500: Expensive But Not Crashing
Rocket Lab just bought Iridium — a launch company now owns the network. Plus the S&P 500 is expensive on every metric that matters, but expensive is not the same as crashing. With Maria's Odd Market Tidbit: the 1950s onion-futures squeeze that became federal law.
Read this issue →Small Caps Are Back · SpaceX Gets the Fast Pass · Short Week, Big Pivot
Small caps wake up while leveraged ETFs hit $45B/day. SpaceX skips the index line — but a $350B+ valuation is the entry that matters. Plus oil headlines, jobs report, and AI in a 4-day Independence Day week. With Maria's Stutz Squeeze tidbit.
Read this issue →Intel or AMD? Plus Prediction Markets — Wall Street's New Casino Door
Intel has the comeback story. AMD has the cleaner trade setup — Maria walks through the AMD July 31 $410 short put. Plus Cboe walks into prediction markets: innovation or Wall Street’s newest casino door?
Read this issue →Micron Hits a Home Run + Wall Street Raised the Bar
Micron delivered the kind of earnings report that makes investors stop and pay attention — Q3 revenue $41.46B, Q4 guided to $50B. Plus Wall Street raised S&P 500 targets to 7,800-8,100.
Read this issue →Is This the AI Trickle-Down Effect?
Korean chip stocks flashed red. U.S. tech followed. Maria explains why this looks more like a profit-taking reset than a breakdown — and why Micron earnings tonight matter.
Read this issue →Broadcom's Dip + Backtesting Bots and the Dreaded M&M Day
AVGO pulled back but the AI story still looks strong — Maria's watching the Aug $350 short put. Plus how backtesting and AI bots help survive the dreaded M&M Day.
Read this issue →Iran/Hormuz Update + CrowdStrike Splits 4-for-1
Oil higher and futures cautious on renewed Strait of Hormuz risk — Monday morning is the tell. Plus CRWD goes 4-for-1 on July 2: easier to trade, not cheaper.
Read this issue →SpaceX Options Blast Off + Warsh Takes Control
1.8 million SPCX contracts on day one beat Meta’s 2012 record. Maria is waiting for gravity. Plus Warsh just changed the Fed’s message at the FOMC.
Read this issue →Micron Earnings Trade + NVIDIA $25B Bonds + The New AI Tell
Maria’s Aug 21 $680 short put on MU pays $3,135 with a 35% downside cushion before June 24 earnings. NVIDIA raises $25B from strength. Plus the new AI scoreboard.
Read this issue →SpaceX Options Arrive Today + 40 Years on Wall Street
SPCX options begin trading Tuesday with the stock around $192 (up 42% from the $135 IPO). Plus Maria on humility, confidence, and integrity — the four lessons that actually keep traders alive.
Read this issue →Kevin Warsh Warned the Fed 16 Years Ago. Now He Runs It.
In 2010 Warsh wrote “An Ode to Independence” warning that political pressure could damage Fed credibility. Now he sits in the chair he warned about — and the test he described is here.
Read this issue →SpaceX IPO $1.75T + Adobe CFO Out
SpaceX targets a $1.75 trillion IPO at $135/share; BlackRock reportedly placing a $5B order. Plus Adobe beats earnings but stock drops on CFO Dan Durn\'s departure.
Read this issue →Same Story Different Stock (Oracle) + Memory May Get the Profits (MU)
Oracle posted record revenue and a 93%-growth cloud business but the stock dropped 6% on AI buildout costs. Plus Maria on why AI doesn't just need chips — it needs memory.
Read this issue →Intel's AI Comeback + Hot CPI Tech Pressure
Google reportedly placed a 3M+ TPU chip order with Intel. Nvidia evaluating Intel tech too. Plus Maria on Tuesday's broad tech selloff and today's CPI report.
Read this issue →Warsh Changes the Ruler + Micron Earnings
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may keep the 2% inflation target but emphasize a lower trimmed-mean gauge - changing the rate-cut math. Plus Maria on Micron earnings Friday.
Read this issue →Here We Go… Friday Selloff + /NQ Put Buying Power
Friday's strong jobs report triggered the worst market day in over a year. Nasdaq -4.2%, S&P -2.6%, $1.8 trillion erased. Plus Maria's take on how to manage /NQ put buying power.
Read this issue →Rockets or Robots? Plus a Bitcoin Reality Check
SpaceX targets a $135 IPO and a $1.75T valuation. Anthropic confidentially files. Bitcoin drops on $1.4B in ETF outflows. Two big stories Maria is watching.
Read this issue →Broadcom’s AI Boom — But Wall Street Wanted More + CrowdStrike’s 4-for-1 Split
Broadcom beat on every line and the stock still fell — why “priced for perfection” matters. Plus CrowdStrike’s 4-for-1 split: more shares, same pie.
Read this issue →Snap-Back +$66K — Plus NVIDIA, Cybersecurity, and POWL
Phil snapped back from Monday’s loss with a record $66K green day. Plus three AI plays Maria’s watching: NVDA ecosystem, PANW/CRWD, and POWL.
Read this issue →What We’re Watching This Week — Plus FEMO May Be the Real Story
Jobs, SpaceX, Iran, AI earnings — and a question Maria wants you to answer: is this rally FOMO or FEMO?
Read this issue →9 1/2 Weeks — And I Don’t Mean the Movie
Watch the bonds, watch yields, watch oil. If they stay calm, the rally can keep moving higher. If they start flashing warnings, respect the risk.
Read this issue →FOMO Is Back — But Chasing Is Still Not a Strategy
The market does not reward regret. It rewards clean setups, defined risk, and patience.
Read this issue →Today’s PCE Report Is More Than an Inflation Number
A confidence test for the rally, an early credibility test for Warsh, and a reminder that Powell’s shadow is still in the room.
Read this issue →Bulls, Bears & AI — Oh My
Bulls, Bears and AI, Oh My!!!!
Read this issue →One Tweet Can Break a Clean Trade
Headline risk and the 0dte SPX trader. How a single tweet can change the entire market tone, lessons from 2013 to 2024, and Phil's trades for the week of May 24.
Read this issue →Memorial Day Setup: Short Week, Big Data, Big Earnings
A short, heavy week. Markets closed Memorial Day. PCE Thursday. AI power demand reshaping the grid. Oil as the wild card. Phil's SPX trade plan for the week.
Read this issue →Markets. AI. Energy. Rates.
Maria's Market Take on the Fed balance sheet battle, the AI infrastructure trade, energy, and rates. Plus Phil's setup for the we