AMD'S NEXT ACT

What changed after the company's biggest AI event of the year.

Wall Street usually takes a few days to digest a major technology event. UBS needed less than one.

After AMD's Advancing AI 2026 event on July 23, UBS raised its price target on AMD to $730 from $700 and kept its Buy rating.

The reason was not simply a faster chip. The bigger story was AMD's growing server CPU business and the profits that could come with it.

Why UBS Got More Bullish

AMD believes the server CPU market could grow to about $220 billion by 2030.

UBS estimates that AMD's server CPU margins may be roughly 10 percentage points higher than the company's overall average. If that higher-margin business keeps expanding, AMD's earnings could grow faster than its sales.

The firm also believes AMD could earn around $27.57 per share in 2028, with the possibility of getting close to $30.

That future earnings potential is the main reason behind the $730 target.

AMD Is Building a Complete AI Platform

AMD's Helios system combines GPUs, EPYC server CPUs, networking and software in one platform. Helios is already in production, with initial shipments expected near the end of Q3 and a larger rollout planned for Q4.

AMD also has major commitments involving OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic and Microsoft. Those agreements will not produce all their revenue immediately, but they show that some of the biggest names in AI are willing to use AMD's technology.

The Opportunity, the Risk and the Next Test

AMD has already had a huge run, so the stock is no longer priced only on potential. Investors now expect the company to deliver.

For UBS's $730 target to make sense, AMD must ship Helios on schedule, ramp its Venice processors, secure enough chip supply and turn major customer commitments into real revenue. It also needs to keep gaining market share while competing with Nvidia and Intel.

The next test comes on August 4, when AMD reports earnings after the closing bell. The company guided to about $11.2 billion in revenue and a non-GAAP gross margin near 56%. Investors will be watching data center growth, profit margins, the Venice ramp and management's outlook for Helios.

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Your Stock Is Down 50% — Are You Investing or Just Waiting to Get Even?

Michael Burry believes investors make a costly mistake when the price they paid becomes the main reason they continue holding a losing stock.

Almost every investor has been there. A stock falls so far that the focus shifts away from the company itself and onto one number — the price paid.

Then comes the familiar promise:

But the market does not know your cost basis, and it does not care. Once a stock has fallen, the important questions are what the company is worth today and whether the shares still deserve a place in your portfolio.

Your purchase price explains where the loss began. It should not decide what happens next.

Getting Back to Even Is Not a Strategy

When a stock falls sharply, many investors stop evaluating the company and focus only on the price they paid. They tell themselves, “I’ll sell as soon as it gets back to even.”

But holding is still a choice to keep your money invested in that company. The decision should depend on whether the business remains strong and the stock still has real value — not on how badly you want to erase the loss.

If the market has overreacted, patience may pay off. But if the company's earnings, debt, competition or outlook have deteriorated, waiting for your old purchase price can turn a painful loss into an even larger one.

What WBD Teaches Us About Holding a Losing Stock

Warner Bros. Discovery fell below $7 as investors focused on its debt and declining cable business. But the company still owned valuable assets, including HBO, Warner Bros. studios, CNN and a large entertainment library.

When Paramount Skydance later offered $31 per share, it showed that the market may have priced WBD far below what those assets were worth.

WBD recovered because a real buyer recognized value that the market had overlooked — not simply because shareholders waited long enough.

Where This Lesson Can Become Dangerous

This does not mean investors should hold every losing stock. A lower stock price does not automatically make the company a better investment.

Many stocks that fall 90% never recover. The real challenge is separating a temporarily mispriced company from one whose business is permanently deteriorating.

Three Questions to Ask Before Holding

1. Has only the stock price changed, or has the company changed?
If fundamentals remained strong, the decline may have created an opportunity. If they have deteriorated, your valuation must change with them.

2. What would I pay for the company today?
Do not rely on an old price target simply because it would get you back to even.

3. Is this still the best place for my money?
A stock may eventually recover, but waiting has an opportunity cost.

Market Week Ahead · Fed Watch · July 2026

THE FED MAY HOLD — BUT THE BOND MARKET IS SENDING A WARNING

The decision may be no change. The message cannot be business as usual.

Wall Street has spent months wondering when the Federal Reserve will finally cut interest rates. But at next week's meeting, the smartest move may be no move at all.

At Wednesday's meeting, the real question is whether the Fed holds rates steady — or decides inflation has become enough of a problem to justify another hike.

The market still leans toward no change, but the odds of a rate hike have jumped sharply. Oil prices, the war involving Iran and stubborn inflation have made this a much tougher decision than it looked only a few weeks ago.

Oil Pulled Back Friday — But the Danger Did Not Disappear

WTI crude finished Friday at $89.31 per barrel, down 3.12% for the day. That sounds encouraging, but oil was still up sharply for the week, and Brent briefly climbed above $100. One new headline from the Middle East could send energy prices higher again.

That matters because higher oil prices eventually show up everywhere — from transportation and manufacturing to groceries and household expenses. The Fed cannot control the war or the price of oil, but it does have to deal with the inflation that can follow.

The Bond Market Is the Part Wall Street Cannot Ignore

The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday near 4.678%, while the 30-year yield remained above 5%. Those are expensive borrowing costs for homebuyers, businesses and consumers, and they can also put more pressure on technology stocks.

As of Friday, traders were pricing in about a 62% chance the Fed holds and a 38% chance of a hike. A week earlier, the chance of a hike was only around 13%.

That is a major shift, and it tells us the market is taking the inflation threat seriously.

A steady Fed could still give stocks some relief, but simply holding rates may not be enough. Kevin Warsh needs to convince investors the Fed is watching inflation closely and is prepared to act if oil prices and inflation keep moving higher.

Stock Market

TRUE OR FALSE?

The Question

Can a stock reach an all-time high even though the company is worth less than it was at an earlier peak?

Why It Can Happen

A share price shows what one share is worth, not the value of the entire company. When a company buys back and retires shares, fewer shares remain outstanding.

With fewer shares, the price per share can set a record even while the company's total market capitalization remains below its earlier peak.

A quick market lesson for investors and traders · True or False Series

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