CATHIE WOOD IS LOOKING TEN YEARS AHEAD — SPACEX TRADERS NEED TO GET THROUGH AUGUST

SpaceX may eventually become one of the most important companies in history. But SPCX is not trading on Mars right now. It is trading on earnings, valuation and a mountain of stock that may soon become eligible for sale.

Cathie Wood made a bold call on Fox Business' Mornings with Maria, saying SpaceX could eventually become the “most important company in global history.” ARK-managed funds have already invested approximately $80 million in the company.

I understand why she is excited — but traders are dealing with a very different timeline.

SpaceX closed Wednesday at $115.26, down 6.7% for the day, below its $135 IPO price and nearly 49% beneath its June high of $225.64. This is no longer an IPO celebration. It is a fight between an enormous long-term story and a stock that Wall Street may still believe is too expensive.

The Business Behind the Hype

SpaceX is not surviving on rocket excitement alone. Starlink generated approximately $11.4 billion in revenue during 2025, up almost 50%, while operating income more than doubled to $4.4 billion. In Q1 2026, the connectivity business produced another $3.3 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in operating income.

That is the part of the business giving Cathie Wood's long-term argument real weight. Starlink is generating revenue and profit while SpaceX spends heavily on Starship, satellites and artificial intelligence.

AI could become the next major catalyst. SpaceX is reportedly discussing a multibillion-dollar agreement to provide the Pentagon with computing capacity for military AI models. The Pentagon story matters — but it is still a possible deal, not booked revenue.

The Real Trade Begins August 4

SpaceX reports Q2 earnings after the closing bell on August 4, followed by a management webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. Traders need answers to a few basic questions:

• Is Starlink still growing fast enough to support the valuation?
• How much cash is SpaceX burning on AI and Starship?
• Are operating losses beginning to narrow?
• Is the Pentagon opportunity becoming real?
• What does management say about spending and future financing?

The numbers matter because SpaceX is investing at an extraordinary rate. Its AI segment generated $818 million in Q1 revenue, but lost almost $2.5 billion from operations and consumed roughly $7.7 billion in capital spending during the quarter. SpaceX may be building the future, but that future is extremely expensive.

Then Comes the Share Unlock

Earnings are only half of the August setup. SpaceX's IPO documents call for staggered lock-up releases beginning after Q2 earnings. Reports estimate as much as $116 billion worth of stock could become eligible for sale during the first major release.

Eligible does not mean sold. But traders cannot ignore the possibility of new supply entering a stock that is already struggling to find buyers. Even a good earnings report could be overshadowed if the market becomes worried about insider selling.

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TECH EARNINGS SCORECARD

Tonight's biggest after-the-close results. ServiceNow and TXN delivered the strongest. Alphabet strong but complicated. Tesla beat revenue but missed badly on profit. IBM missed on both.

GOOGL: revenue beat and Google Cloud growth exceptionally strong. Higher spending plans weighed on the reaction. TSLA: revenue beat, but earnings missed by a wide margin. Profitability and negative FCF were the weak spots. NOW: beat and raised full-year outlook. TXN: beat and issued stronger-than-expected guidance. IBM: missed both and lowered revenue-growth outlook.

* Alphabet reported EPS included a substantial investment-related gain and is not directly comparable with the normal analyst estimate.

LONDON WANTS THE MARKET OPEN WHILE WALL STREET SLEEPS

The London Stock Exchange is preparing a nearly round-the-clock weekday venue — and the most important change may be who, or what, is doing the trading.

The closing bell may soon mean a lot less. The London Stock Exchange plans to launch LSE 24, a separate regulated overnight market, during the first half of 2027, subject to approval. The regular London session will keep its current hours, while the new venue operates through the night with a short pause for end-of-day processing.

The idea is simple: when news breaks while Europe is asleep or Asia is trading, investors would no longer have to wait for London to reopen. But LSE 24 is not merely a longer session. It is being designed around automation, AI connectivity and digital market infrastructure from the start.

Why ETPs Come First · Built for AI Trading

The venue will begin with exchange-traded products tied to global stocks, bonds and commodities. They offer broad exposure, already attract international investors and are generally easier to support overnight than thousands of individual companies.

The real story: LSE 24 is being built for algorithmic and agentic AI trading, allowing automated systems to read data, manage orders and react to market events throughout the session. Still under formal market rules, risk controls and surveillance — but machines will be able to participate more directly and far faster than human traders.

The Overnight Catch

LSE 24 plans to combine a traditional central order book with a request-for-quote system. That second feature could be important during quieter hours because traders may need to ask market makers for a usable price instead of relying on a thin screen of bids and offers.

Thin liquidity can create wider spreads, weaker fills and sudden price jumps. If several AI systems react to the same headline at once, a move that once took minutes could unfold in seconds. Longer access may help investors respond to risk, but it could also make overnight mistakes more expensive.

The Global Race Is Already On

London is responding to a world where futures, currencies and cryptocurrencies already move around the clock. Once one large exchange proves there is real demand and dependable liquidity, competitors will have little reason to keep the old schedule. The next battle may not be over which market has the fastest opening bell, but which one can make the closing bell matter the least.

Market Tidbit

WHEN THE PIT
BOILED OVER

On June 24, 2014, trading on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange was slow.

Volatility was low, business was quiet and tempers were anything but calm.

In the middle of the open-outcry pit, one trader reportedly told another man to move. He believed the trader was standing in a spot that belonged to him.

The other man refused.

Words turned into shoving. Shoving turned into punches. A shirt was ripped, security rushed in and both traders were escorted from the floor.

The surprising part was that the fight had nothing to do with a million-dollar loss, a bad trade or a market crash. It was reportedly over a few feet of floor space.

All around them, traders were buying and selling contracts tied to crude oil, natural gas, gold and other commodities worth millions of dollars. Yet two men were fighting over where one of them was standing.

Some floor veterans later suggested that slow trading may have added to the tension. Electronic markets were taking over, fewer trades were being handled in the pits and many longtime floor traders were watching their livelihoods disappear.

Apparently, one small argument was enough to light the fuse. The exchange never publicly identified the two traders — perhaps proving that what happened in the trading pit sometimes stayed in the trading pit.

Week of July 20 — Two /ES 0DTE trades

Two /ES 0DTE plays — morning and late-day. Same strategy family, different entry times.

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