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Tuesday After Close
AMD · ALAB · SPCX
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Thursday Morning
DDOG
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AMD: The Main Event
Wall Street expects AMD to report approximately $1.61 in adjusted earnings per share on $11.3 billion in revenue. The company previously guided for approximately $11.2 billion in sales, representing roughly 46% year-over-year growth.
AMD enters this report with improving fundamentals. Last quarter, revenue grew 38%, earnings increased 43%, and data-center revenue jumped 57% to a record $5.7 billion. The company has also expanded its AI relationships with Microsoft, Meta and Anthropic.
AMD has become a serious contender in AI infrastructure, backed by growing data-center demand and major technology customers. But the stock has already rallied, expectations are high, and the options market is pricing in a move of approximately 10% in either direction.
A routine beat may not be enough. AMD needs strong data-center growth, healthy margins and guidance that gives Wall Street something worth buying.
Astera Labs: Great Growth, Expensive Stock
Astera Labs reports Tuesday after the close. The company makes connectivity products that help GPUs and AI accelerators transfer data efficiently inside large data centers.
First-quarter revenue surged 93% to $308.4 million, while Wall Street expects second-quarter revenue of approximately $360 million. Those are outstanding growth numbers, but the stock still carries a lofty valuation. This is one to watch carefully rather than chase into earnings.
SpaceX: Strong Starlink Growth Could Face Heavy Selling Pressure
SpaceX reports Tuesday after the close, and Starlink will be the most important part of the results. Investors will be watching subscriber growth, revenue, margins and capital spending. Starlink provides recurring revenue and may offer the clearest indication of whether SpaceX's operating growth supports its enormous valuation.
The earnings report arrives just before a potentially significant lockup release. Approximately 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors could become eligible for trading. Eligibility does not mean every share will be sold, but the additional supply could create considerable pressure.
Valuation adds another layer of risk. SpaceX shares have fallen approximately 31% since the IPO and 51% from their high, yet the stock still trades at roughly 76 times sales — far above the technology-sector average of approximately nine times sales. History also shows that large IPOs frequently struggle during their first year. Even a strong earnings report may not be enough to overcome the valuation, rising spending and upcoming increase in tradable shares.
Starlink could deliver excellent numbers, yet SpaceX stock might still struggle if newly eligible shareholders decide to take profits.
Datadog Is Quietly Getting Interesting
Datadog reports Thursday morning. Wall Street expects earnings of 58 cents per share on $1.08 billion in revenue, representing growth of 26% and 30.5%, respectively.
Those estimates may be conservative. Morgan Stanley and Guggenheim believe Datadog's momentum remains strong, supported by cloud growth, corporate technology spending and demand from AI companies. Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim and TD Cowen all carry Buy ratings with $300 price targets.
Datadog helps businesses monitor the performance, security and cost of increasingly complicated cloud and AI systems. It can even track AI-token consumption and identify where companies are wasting money or experiencing performance problems.
That makes Datadog an interesting picks-and-shovels AI company. It does not need to develop the winning AI model — it can benefit from monitoring all the models, applications and infrastructure being built around them.
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Maria's Take
AMD is my favorite name on the calendar, but expectations are elevated. SpaceX carries the greatest risk because its earnings report is colliding with a massive potential increase in tradable shares. Datadog may be the sleeper as AI creates more systems that businesses need to monitor.
I may have an earnings play or two this week, but I will be selective. A simple beat may not be enough when expectations are this high. Guidance and valuation will determine which stocks earn their next move — and which ones get punished.
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