Issue No. 65 • Monday August 24, 2026 The Trading Addict Newsletter by Maria Helmick  Tap the image to view full size Nvidia · Earnings August 26 Wall Street Sees Nvidia at $340 to $350Burry flags circular-financing risk. Three major banks have weighed the same risks — and still see Nvidia moving higher. | Bank of America $350 Top chip pick | BMO Capital $340 Top large-cap chip pick | Morgan Stanley $288 Overweight |
Wall Street Has Already Weighed the RiskMichael Burry is warning that Nvidia sits at the center of an AI bubble fueled by circular financing and hidden leverage. Bank of America, BMO Capital and Morgan Stanley see something different. These banks are not ignoring the financing. They have reviewed Nvidia's commitments, competition, margins and future growth — and they remain bullish. Of the 54 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 52 rate Nvidia a Buy and two say Hold. Not one says Sell. The average target is $308.01. The Numbers Still Favor NvidiaNvidia guided for approximately $91 billion in quarterly revenue, excluding China data-center compute sales. Bank of America expects $94 billion to $95 billion, while Morgan Stanley projects $102.3 billion next quarter. Burry argues that too much future demand is supported by prepaid contracts, leases and outside financing. If AI usage eventually disappoints, some projects could struggle. But financing does not make the demand fake. Financing Is Not Fake DemandData centers require billions of dollars, enormous power supplies and years of construction. Helping customers secure outside capital is not the same as inventing customers or booking imaginary revenue. Nvidia continues delivering actual products, actual sales and enormous cash flow. Blackwell is driving revenue today. Rubin is approaching. Nvidia's CPUs, networking equipment, software and complete systems allow it to profit from nearly every part of the AI buildout. That full-stack advantage is why competitors have struggled to break Nvidia's grip on the market. The risks are real. So are Nvidia's revenue, demand and profits. |
Maria's Bottom Line Burry sees a bubble. Bank of America sees $350, BMO sees $340, and Morgan Stanley sees $288. Meanwhile, 52 analysts say Buy. I'm staying hitched to Nvidia. If it pulls back after earnings, I may increase my position. I'm not selling. If the bears want my Nvidia shares, they'll have to pay full price. We will definitely see on earnings day, August 26. |
Sources: Nvidia investor materials; Bank of America, BMO Capital and Morgan Stanley research as reported in August 2026; MarketBeat analyst consensus. |
Earnings Watch · CRM · Aug 26 After the Bell Salesforce Earnings: Show Me the GrowthAgentforce is finally making money. Now Salesforce has to prove the core business can keep up. | Friday Close $209.17 P/E near 23.5 | Q2 Revenue Guide $11.27–$11.35B 10–11% growth | Adjusted EPS Guide $3.25–$3.27 Street: ~$3.28 |
Salesforce reports after the bell on August 26. CRM has been beaten down, but the company is still making plenty of money. The question is whether the growth is strong enough to make investors care again. The stock closed Friday at $209.17 with a P/E near 23.5. That is not dirt cheap, but it is reasonable if Salesforce can prove AI is adding real growth instead of just adding another good story. Agentforce Is Real — But Read the Fine PrintAgentforce reached $1.2 billion in annual recurring revenue last quarter, up 205% from a year ago. Combined Agentforce and Data 360 ARR reached nearly $3.4 billion. Those are good numbers, but the larger $3.4 billion headline needs context. It includes approximately $1.1 billion from Informatica Cloud, which Salesforce acquired. Agentforce's growth is real, but not every dollar in the combined number was built organically inside Salesforce. It is still progress. Agentforce is no longer just Marc Benioff standing on a stage telling investors AI will change the world. It is producing revenue. The next test is whether it can move the whole company — not just make the presentation look better. The Earnings ScoreboardSalesforce expects Q2 revenue of $11.27 billion to $11.35 billion, or growth of roughly 10% to 11%. More than four percentage points of that growth are expected to come from Informatica. Wall Street is looking for roughly $11.33 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of about $3.28 per share. Salesforce guided for adjusted EPS of $3.25 to $3.27. Last quarter, Salesforce earned an adjusted $3.88 per share versus approximately $3.13 expected. Revenue reached $11.13 billion, also beating estimates. The stock still received little credit because the next-quarter revenue outlook came in slightly below expectations. That tells us exactly what can happen on August 26: Salesforce can beat the quarter and still fall if the guidance is weak. Investors want to see the core business speed up after Informatica is stripped out. A $25 Billion Buyback — with a CatchSalesforce paid $25 billion up front for an accelerated buyback and initially received approximately 103 million shares at an average price of $198.34. That initial delivery represented about 80% of the shares expected under the deal. Separately, another $22.9 billion remained authorized for future repurchases as of April 30. The catch is the financing: Salesforce issued $25 billion in new debt to fund that accelerated buyback. Retiring shares can lift earnings per share, but borrowing $25 billion to buy back stock does not create one dollar of operating growth. Maria's Bottom Line Unfortunately, I'm not buying the story before earnings — and I doubt many other investors will either. Salesforce needs to show us real organic growth or deliver strong guidance on August 26. Until then, CRM stays firmly on my wait-and-see list. |
Sources: Salesforce Q1 FY2027 results; Salesforce Q2 FY2027 earnings-date announcement; Salesforce Form 10-Q filed May 28, 2026. |
» MARKET WEEK AHEAD · AUG 24–28  Tap the calendar to view full size — Wednesday belongs to Nvidia. Friday belongs to the Fed. Bitcoin · Washington Update Bitcoin's Big Meeting Delivered More Talk Than ActionA sharp price move followed — but Washington did not deliver a breakthrough. | Bitcoin jumped from about $69,000 to above $74,000, but the White House meeting did not produce the breakthrough that price move might suggest. President Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, which would create clearer federal rules for cryptocurrency and define the responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC. Regulators also discussed cryptocurrency exchanges, leveraged trading and 24-hour markets. What Actually Changed No bill passed. No regulations changed. No government Bitcoin purchase was announced, and nothing new was added to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. |
Bitcoin's rally had other fuel. Lower Treasury yields encouraged risk-taking, Bitcoin ETF demand strengthened and more than $3 billion in bearish crypto positions were reportedly forced out. The meeting helped the mood, but the short squeeze helped drive the price. Maria's Bottom Line I'm not for Bitcoin, and I'm not against it. I'm right in the middle — and at this point, I don't see cryptocurrency legislation becoming Washington's top priority. The government is already dealing with the federal budget, mounting debt, war, oil prices, inflation and interest rates. Those problems affect every household and every corner of the market. Crypto rules matter to the industry, but they are competing for attention against issues that are much harder for Congress to ignore. So, was the meeting successful? It kept Bitcoin on Washington's agenda and gave the market something positive to trade. Beyond that, not much changed. |
Sources: Reuters; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market figures reflect reporting available August 21, 2026. |
» MARKET TIDBIT · BITCOIN MARKET TIDBIT | BITCOIN WHO WALKS AWAY FROM $77 BILLION?In the middle of the 2008 financial crisis, an unfamiliar name appeared on a small cryptography mailing list: Satoshi Nakamoto. Attached was a nine-page paper describing Bitcoin — money that could travel directly from person to person without a bank, government or trusted middleman. But who had written it? No photograph. No office. No verified identity. Not even proof that Satoshi was one person. On January 3, 2009, a computer somewhere in the world mined Bitcoin's first block. Nine days later, Satoshi sent 10 Bitcoin to programmer Hal Finney. The network was alive. Satoshi answered questions and updated the Bitcoin software — but always from behind a screen. Even the people working alongside Satoshi never knew the creator's real name, location or identity. Then, on December 12, 2010, Satoshi posted a routine technical message about protecting Bitcoin from cyberattacks. It looked completely ordinary. No farewell. No warning. No hint that the person behind Bitcoin was about to vanish. Four months later, one last private email surfaced: “I've moved on to other things. It's in good hands with Gavin and everyone.” Then the trail went cold. No confirmed message. No public appearance. No return. Satoshi is believed to have left behind nearly 1 million Bitcoin, worth approximately $77.3 billion today. The fortune has largely remained frozen on the blockchain — visible to everyone, controlled by no one we can identify. Was Satoshi a lone genius, a secret group or something larger? Did the creator disappear for safety, to protect Bitcoin's independence — or because Satoshi could never return? BITCOIN RECORDS EVERY TRANSACTION — BUT ITS CREATOR LEFT ALMOST NO TRACE. |
Estimated value based on Bitcoin near $77,347 on August 24, 2026. |
This Week's Report Card Earnings Calendar · Week 1 Aug 24–28 |  Tap the chart to view full size |
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