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Issue No. 2  •  May 21, 2026

THE TRADING ADDICT

NEWSLETTER

Rob & Maria Helmick

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Markets. AI. Energy. Rates.

Markets gave traders a lot to digest this week — and not all of it pointed in the same direction.

Nvidia delivered a strong quarter with record revenue, strong margins, a dividend raise, and an $80 billion buyback, proving the AI trade is still alive. Walmart also beat, but its cautious outlook gave traders another reason to watch the consumer.

At the same time, oil moved back above $100, the 10-year yield pushed near 4.6%, and Middle East headlines kept inflation fears in the background.

Add in a complicated Fed story, a major quantum computing funding push, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO, and this market still has opportunity — but it also has attitude.

Fed Watch: The Balance Sheet Battle Begins

The Fed story is not just about rate cuts anymore. The bigger issue may be liquidity.

As Jerome Powell hands the reins to Kevin Warsh, traders are watching for a shift in Fed policy. Warsh has favored shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, which still sits around $6.7 trillion after peaking above $9 trillion during the pandemic era. For perspective, the balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the massive Covid-era stimulus push.

That matters because the Fed balance sheet is one of the market’s biggest liquidity tools. When the Fed expands it, money flows easier. When the Fed shrinks it, liquidity gets pulled out of the system.

The risk is that draining liquidity too quickly can pressure banks, money markets, bonds, and financial assets — especially when oil is elevated and Treasury yields are already near 4.6%.

Warsh May Have a Fight Waiting for Him

Warsh may want a smaller balance sheet and lower rates eventually, but he is not walking into an easy setup.

The next Fed meeting is still expected to be a hold, with the target range around 3.50% to 3.75%. But looking further out, traders are already pricing in a more complicated path. Swap positioning shows meaningful odds of a 25 basis-point hike by year-end, and even some probability of a larger 50 basis-point move if inflation stays hot.

That tells us the market is not fully buying the easy rate-cut story.

Warsh may want to create room for lower rates later, but inflation, oil, high yields, and hawkish Fed members could make that difficult.

Bottom line: Warsh is taking over at a tricky time. The market wants cuts, but the Fed may still be dealing with inflation risk, liquidity stress, and a balance sheet that is far from normal.

Quantum Gets Its CHIPS Moment

The quantum computing trade just got a major shot of credibility.

The U.S. government is backing several quantum companies with roughly $2 billion tied to CHIPS Act funding, giving the sector a serious credibility boost.

Quantum has always been exciting, but risky. The promise is huge, while the road to real commercialization is expensive and uncertain.

Quantum is not just a science project anymore. It is a national priority.

Names to Watch

D-Wave gets validation. Its quantum annealing approach has been debated for years, and federal support helps put it back in the serious conversation.

Rigetti gets a longer runway. For smaller quantum companies, funding matters, and federal support ties the company to the national-security tech story.

IBM may be the infrastructure winner. The funding push supports quantum chip manufacturing, making IBM more of a “picks and shovels” play in the quantum race.

SPACEX IPO BLASTOFF

SpaceX is the IPO event driving this setup. The company is targeting a June 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, with pricing expected around June 11. The deal could raise around $75 billion at a valuation approaching $2 trillion, which would make it one of the biggest IPO events ever.

This is not just a rocket story anymore. SpaceX brings together reusable launches, Starlink, satellites, defense contracts, AI infrastructure, and long-term space ambitions in one public-market event. Starlink alone generated $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue, showing how important the satellite internet business has become to the overall SpaceX story.

That is why this IPO matters for public space stocks. When a giant private company like SpaceX comes public, traders often look for related names that can catch the sympathy move.

Other stocks that could move with the theme include ASTS, RDW, LUNR, PL, BKSY, and GOOGL, but RKLB may be the strongest sympathy name because it gives traders cleaner exposure to the commercial space theme.

RKLB is one of the closest public comparisons to SpaceX, with launch services, space systems, satellites, and government/commercial contracts.

The setup: SpaceX is the headline, but RKLB may be the public stock traders use to ride the wave.

Maria’s Trade Idea for the SpaceX IPO Event

The goal is not to chase the IPO headline. The goal is to structure a trade that gives the SpaceX wave time to play out after the debut.

RKLB June 18, 2026 115/105 Bull Put Spread

The cleaner setup is the RKLB June 18, 2026 115/105 bull put spread.

This keeps the trade bullish while defining the downside risk. It also expires about one week after the targeted SpaceX debut, giving the trade a post-IPO window instead of forcing everything into one event day.

Cleaner read: bullish RKLB, defined risk, post-IPO window.

RKLB June 18, 2026 110 Short Put

The more aggressive version is the RKLB June 18, 2026 110 short put, currently showing around a $6.50 credit, or about $650 per contract.

This brings in more premium, but the downside is not defined. It only makes sense for traders who are comfortable owning RKLB lower if the SpaceX wave fades.

Cleaner read: more premium, more risk, assignment possible.

Bottom line: RKLB could catch SpaceX momentum, but only if support holds, volume confirms, and the risk fits the account. This is a trade to manage with discipline — not a headline to chase.

Disclaimer: This is not trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. These trade ideas are for educational and informational purposes only. Options involve risk and can result in substantial losses. Always do your own research, understand the trade structure, and make sure any position fits your risk tolerance, account size, and trading plan.

Final Word: The Market Is Strong, But Not Simple

This week showed exactly why traders cannot focus on only one headline.

Nvidia is strong.
Walmart is telling us to watch the consumer.
Oil is keeping inflation fears alive.
Yields are still a problem.
The Fed may be heading into a liquidity battle.
Quantum just got a government stamp of approval.
And SpaceX may wake up the public space-trade names.