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Micron (MU) reports earnings September 30, making it one of the last major AI earnings plays on our radar this cycle. And it comes into the report with an impressive track record.
4 FOR 4 EPS + Revenue Beats | 20.7% Avg EPS Beat | $41.46B Latest Revenue |
Four Reports. Four Beats.
Micron has beaten both EPS and revenue expectations in each of its last four reports, with an average EPS beat of approximately 20.7%.
| Report | EPS Est. | Actual | Beat | Rev. Est. | Actual |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.86 | $3.03 | +5.9% | $11.05B | $11.32B |
| Q1 FY26 | $3.77 | $4.78 | +26.8% | $12.62B | $13.64B |
| Q2 FY26 | $9.19 | $12.20 | +32.8% | $19.97B | $23.86B |
| Q3 FY26 | $21.39 | $25.11 | +17.4% | $35.91B | $41.46B |
The growth behind those beats is just as impressive. Revenue has climbed from $11.32 billion to $41.46 billion, while adjusted EPS has increased from $3.03 to $25.11.
The Setup: Wall Street Support. Earnings Volatility. Better Entry Discipline.
Wall Street remains firmly behind the story as well. Current analyst coverage is overwhelmingly positive, with 35 Buy or Strong Buy ratings, 3 Holds and no Sells in one consensus survey. Recent targets include $1,500 from RBC, $1,300 from Bernstein and $1,100 from Goldman Sachs, which maintains a Hold rating.
But strong fundamentals don't mean MU is a quiet stock — especially around earnings. Following its last four reports, MU moved between roughly 3% and 16% the next trading session, with two moves higher and two lower. That's why we're interested in being patient with this potential earnings setup.
Where We're Watching Support
MU finished September 18 around $1,015.80 after trading as low as approximately $978 during the session. We're watching $1,000 as the first support area, followed by roughly $975-$980. A deeper pullback would bring the $900-$930 area back into focus.
$1,000 First Support | $975-$980 Pullback Zone | $900-$930 Deeper Support |
For a potential short put, we don't want to chase strength. A controlled down day into support could improve both our strike location and the premium available.
Off-Exchange + Earnings Watch
Participation, guidance and the key numbers heading into September 30.
Off-Exchange Activity
Off-exchange activity remains substantial, but we don't see enough evidence to call it unusually bullish or bearish. Approximately 52% of the latest session volume was off-exchange, close to MU's recent average. That confirms meaningful off-exchange participation, but it does not establish whether institutions are accumulating or distributing shares. For now, the price action around support matters more.
Micron Q4 Guidance
$49-$51B Revenue | $30-$32 Adj. EPS | ~86% Adj. Gross Margin |
Beyond the headline numbers, we'll be watching forward guidance, HBM demand, memory pricing and margins.
Taiwan Labor Risk
We're also keeping an eye on the ongoing labor situation at Micron's Taiwan operations. September 18 and September 21 are two key dates in the negotiations, with the union looking for a concrete proposal from Micron.
However, the union has warned that if an agreement isn't reached, it could declare negotiations broken down and move toward a strike vote.
The timing matters: September 21 is just nine days before Micron reports earnings on September 30, making a potential work stoppage another event risk to watch heading into the report.
Maria's Potential MU Earnings Play
Coming this week — but only if the setup earns our capital.
The earnings record is strong. Wall Street remains bullish. And MU's volatility may give us the opportunity we're looking for.
We're not chasing it. We're waiting to see whether MU gives us the right combination of entry, strike and premium before putting the potential trade on the table.
The Bottom Line Four Straight Beats. One of the last big AI earnings plays of the cycle. September 30. If the premium doesn't justify the risk, there's no trade. |
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